Johor polls: BN holds electoral edge in Johor, but 31 seats still up for grabs, survey shows

JOHOR BARU: Barisan Nasional (BN) enters the Johor election with a statistical lead in vote share, but the contest remains wide open, with 31 constituencies still in play and a sizeable bloc of undecided voters capable of shifting the outcome.

The state election forecast by Vodus Research, based on a survey of 1,303 registered voters conducted between June 15 and 29, showed BN leading with 36 per cent of the likely vote, ahead of Pakatan Harapan (PH) at 26 per cent and Perikatan Nasional (PN) at 15 per cent. Other parties collectively accounted for 13 per cent.

Despite BN’s lead, the study found the electoral battlefield remains fluid, with 14 constituencies tightly contested, 17 seats still unresolved, and nearly one in three voters yet to firmly commit to a final choice.

Seat-level projections indicate BN currently ahead in 20 constituencies, including 17 classified as safe and three marginal seats.

PH leads in one marginal seat, while PN is ahead in three.

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A further 14 seats remain closely contested between BN and PH, with another 17 still uncalled.

Vodus Research noted that while BN appears positioned for a stronger seat conversion, the margin in several constituencies remains narrow enough to shift with small voter swings.

The survey also found Johor caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi recorded the highest favourability rating at 58 per cent, while BN led party favourability at 53 per cent, ahead of PH (46 per cent) and PN (44 per cent).

Trust in the BN-led state administration stood at 67 per cent, closely mirroring BN’s institutional trust level of 68 per cent, with both recording identical distrust levels of 18 per cent.

Despite a high turnout intent of 87 per cent, only 69 per cent of respondents said they were firmly committed to their current voting choice, leaving 31 per cent classified as soft voters.

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Among declared supporters, PN showed the highest certainty level at 78 per cent, followed by BN at 74 per cent and PH at 72 per cent.

However, voters who declined to disclose their preference remained highly fluid, with 63 per cent still open to changing their minds, while 85 per cent of undecided respondents had yet to settle on a party.

Vodus Research founder Dr Kelvin Goh said the headline numbers masked a more volatile ground reality.

“While BN currently holds the edge, the overall vote share only tells part of the story.

In closely contested constituencies, even relatively small shifts among soft and non-disclosing voters could still reshape the final seat map,” he said.

Cost of living emerged as the dominant issue shaping voter sentiment, with 53 per cent of respondents ranking it among their top three concerns, and 31 per cent identifying it as their single most important issue.

The issue cut across party lines, influencing voters across all major coalitions.

Overall, the findings suggest BN enters the final phase of the campaign in a favourable position, but with a significant number of tight races and undecided voters still in play, the final outcome remains far from certain.

Johor polls: BN holds electoral edge in Johor, but 31 seats still up for grabs, survey shows

DISYORKAN UNTUK ANDA :

• Manifesto BN Realistik, Mampu Pacu Johor Ke Arah Maju 2030 – Syed Hussien
• Bertembung Di Pasar Malam, Ramlee Tetap Fokus Pertahan Kempas
• Titah Sultan Selangor Dedah Hakikat Sebenar Projek LRT3 – Mohd Razlan

LAWATI LAMAN FACEBOOK KAMI :

Layari Laman Facebook MYKMU.NET

Perpaduan Kunci Kemajuan, Kekalkan Stabiliti Demi Masa Depan Negeri Johor