BN holds advantage as Melaka election arithmetic shifts

BN holds advantage as Melaka election arithmetic shifts

KUALA LUMPUR: With Melaka edging closer to a state election, the political arithmetic is shifting, with Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional weighing their options ahead of a possible dissolution of the state assembly by the end of the month.

BN goes into the contest from a position of strength after winning 21 of the state’s 28 seats in 2021, but analysts say its choice of electoral strategy — whether to go it alone or work with another bloc — could determine the size of its victory.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said BN remained well placed to retain the state even without an alliance, but cooperation with PH could maximise its gains.

“PH would be more beneficial to BN if the objective is to maximise the number of seats, particularly by avoiding three-cornered contests,” he told the New Straits Times.

He said PH’s strength in urban and non-Malay-majority areas complemented BN’s support in rural and Malay-majority constituencies.

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A BN-PN pact, meanwhile, could consolidate Malay support but would be harder to negotiate as both blocs compete for similar seats and could risk alienating non-Malay and moderate voters.

“Winning Malay votes alone may not be enough to win Melaka,” he said.

Universiti Teknologi Mara political analyst Dr Ariff Aizuddin Azlan said BN’s established support base meant it could retain the state on its own.

He added that PN’s strongest prospects remained in Malay-majority seats and PH would remain difficult to dislodge in DAP-held Chinese-majority constituencies.

He said three-cornered contests could benefit either side, depending on where opposition votes were split.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said BN remained the frontrunner, but cautioned against using the 2021 result as a direct benchmark.

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He said Malay support, younger voters and turnout would be crucial, with the outcome ultimately hinging on which coalition could avoid splitting its own vote bank.

“Melaka’s election is not merely about who is strongest, but who is most successful in preventing their own votes from being split,” he said.

The calculations have been complicated by developments on the ground, including DAP’s withdrawal of support for the Melaka government and Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh’s warning that he would not contest if BN entered an electoral pact with PH.

With the possible dissolution drawing closer, the question is no longer simply who can win Melaka, but who can put together the most effective electoral formula.