Anwar’s Tambun among 27 seats PH risks losing if BN and PN unite in GE16

SHAH ALAM – Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces the risk of losing 27 parliamentary seats, including Tambun held by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, should Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) reach a one-on-one agreement at the 16th general election (GE16).

Universiti Malaya (UM) political science department senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said based on the GE15 results, the combined BN and PN votes in the seats concerned mathematically outnumber PH’s votes.

Besides Tambun, the seats involved include Sungai Petani, Balik Pulau, Sungai Siput, Tanjong Malim, Bentong, Raub, Kuala Selangor, Gombak, Hulu Langat, Sungai Buloh, Shah Alam, Sepang, Lembah Pantai, Bandar Tun Razak, Setiawangsa, Alor Gajah and Hang Tuah Jaya.

Also in that group are Sekijang, Ledang, Sri Gading, Johor Bahru, Labis, Segamat, Batu Pahat, Pasir Gudang and Tebrau.

“This is based on the GE15 results where these seats, by calculation, have mixed votes that could shift to BN-PN.

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“That is if BN-PN field only one candidate each, a ‘one-on-one’ contest, so that their combined GE15 votes can be pooled together,” he told Sinar.

However, Tawfik stressed that vote transfer between the two blocs does not happen automatically or at 100 per cent, as it is still influenced by candidate factors, which party is given the seat, machinery strength, voter turnout and how receptive supporters are to the cooperation.

He said the five most exposed seats based on a deficit of more than 20,000 votes are Sungai Buloh (26,367), Sungai Petani (26,276), Tambun (24,395), Kuala Selangor (22,637) and Sepang (22,148).

He said PH also could not assume its large GE15 majorities are a safe “cushion” should the contest structure change to one-on-one.

Tawfik also cautioned that voting patterns are not static, citing the recent Johor state election (PRN Johor), where BN won 48 of 56 seats compared with PH’s eight.

He said supporter turnout matters just as much as vote swing, as PH relies heavily on mobilising urban and mixed-seat voters.

Should Malay votes consolidate behind a single candidate while Chinese and Indian voter turnout declines, several seats that appeared secure at GE15 could become more exposed.

He also stressed that big-name incumbents are no longer an “insurance” for victory, as local candidate factors, the cost of living, government performance, local issues and machinery strength could all shift the outcome.

Meanwhile, Tawfik projected PH could win between 50 and 58 seats at GE16, BN 60 to 65 seats and PN 64 to 70 seats.

“If you want a single round figure, I predict PH 54 seats, BN 62 and PN 67.

“The remaining seats will be determined by GPS, GRS, Warisan and other parties, particularly in Sabah and Sarawak,” he said.

He said the projection takes into account developments since GE15, including BN’s performance at the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections and the possibility of three-cornered contests among Malay parties being reduced.

In Negeri Sembilan, he said, the BN-PN understanding produced 25 of 36 state seats, with 18 for BN and seven for PN.

“That’s why GE16 can no longer be read using the static GE15 pattern. Some PH seats won in 2022 because of the BN-PN vote split could become very exposed if both reach a one-on-one formula and a high rate of vote transfer occurs,” he said.

He said the current trend shows PH risks losing between 20 and nearly 30 seats if the Johor and Negeri Sembilan pattern continues.

However, he expects GE16 could still produce a hung Parliament, with PH, BN and PN each failing to reach 112 seats.

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