Pas-Bersatu split hands advantage to rivals, say analysts

KUALA LUMPUR: PAS’ decision to end political cooperation with Bersatu could not have come at a worse time for the opposition, with Johor and Negri Sembilan heading for state elections.

Political observers said the two parties now faced an uphill battle in both states as they tussle over the way forward and who should lead Perikatan Nasional.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities lecturer Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the schism had weakened PN’s appeal as viable candidates to govern the two states.

He said this was compounded by fragmented Malay support, adding that even Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s popularity was unlikely to be enough to help the party retain its seats in Johor.

“As such, Pas and Bersatu face a challenge to defend their seats in both states.

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“I would not be surprised if they lose all their seats in both elections.”

In the 2022 Johor election, PN won three of the 56 seats. Pas won in Maharani, while Bersatu took Endau and Bukit Kepong.

However, Bersatu’s position was undermined again after Endau assemblyman Alwiyah Talib quit the party to rejoin Umno early this month.

During the 2023 election in Negri Sembilan, PN won five seats.

Three of them — Serting, Bagan Pinang and Paroi — were won by Pas, while Labu and Gemas went to Bersatu.

Another political analyst, Mujibu Abd Muis, said Bersatu is likely to suffer the most in the falling out, given its reliance on Pas’ strong election machinery.

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He said the opposition’s strength largely depended on the synergy of Malay votes and the combined strength of both parties’ machinery, particularly in mixed urban and semi-urban Malay constituencies.

“Pas possesses one of the most disciplined election operations in Malaysia, from district polling centre management and voter mobilisation to polling agents and election-day operations.

“Bersatu, on the other hand, relies more heavily on personalities, national sentiment and prevailing political momentum.

“Without Pas, Bersatu may struggle to defend its seats in the state elections,” he said.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the conflict between Pas and Bersatu would provide a significant advantage to Johor Barisan Nasional, including in its efforts to capture the three seats previously won by PN.

“With the two parties now divided, the opposition will face difficulties coordinating seat allocations, organising campaigns and avoiding clashes between themselves for the Johor polls.

“At the same time, the recent political developments in Negri Sembilan make the state election increasingly difficult to predict.

“While sentiment towards the state government may fluctuate, a divided opposition will still face major challenges in translating that sentiment into electoral victories.”

The Election Commission will hold a meeting tomorrow to decide the key dates for the Johor and Negri Sembilan elections.