Analysts split on Shahelmey’s odds of defending Tanjung Keramat
Analysts split on Shahelmey’s odds of defending Tanjung Keramat
PETALING JAYA: Political analysts are divided over Sabah deputy chief minister Shahelmey Yahya’s chances of defending the Tanjung Keramat seat in the upcoming Sabah state election.
While analysts Romzi Ationg and Awang Azman Pawi expect a tough battle ahead for Shahelmey, Bilcher Bala believes the Putatan MP still has a shot at securing the seat.
Bilcher, of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), said Shahelmey, a first-time MP and state assemblyman, could use his track record as deputy chief minister for the past two years to counter any voter dissatisfaction stemming from his rift with Umno.
“His performance as deputy chief minister and state works minister could be an advantage in drawing voter support, especially from those who appreciate his contributions,” Bilcher told FMT.
Last week, Shahelmey confirmed his intention to defend Tanjung Keramat, a seat he won on a Barisan Nasional (BN) ticket in the 2020 Sabah election. However, he did not disclose which party he would contest under.
Shahelmey, who also won Putatan in the 2022 general election under BN, was suspended from Umno in January 2023 after defying the party’s decision to withdraw from its alliance with Hajiji Noor’s Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
Romzi, also of UMS, said Shahelmey had a tough road ahead as his 2020 victory was due more to Umno’s grassroots machinery than personal popularity.
“He was not a popular figure in the area before. His popularity came from Umno, so if he switches parties, he will have trouble,” Romzi said.
Awang Azman of Universiti Malaya said Shahelmey risked alienating the voters who had originally backed him as an Umno candidate.
“By defecting, he will likely anger and disappoint those who previously supported him,” he said.
Adding that Shahelmey’s odds as an independent candidate would be slim, Awang Azman said he would likely contest under GRS.
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However, he warned that this move could cause friction within the coalition, particularly among the parties also eyeing Tanjung Keramat.
“Even though he was appointed as deputy chief minister and is a key ally of Hajiji, this does not guarantee full acceptance by GRS supporters,” Awang Azman said.
Romzi meanwhile said that voters in Sabah were placing increasing emphasis on candidates’ credibility and their ability to deliver in terms of development, rather than their political affiliation.
“Party loyalty may only account for 10% of voters’ decisions, and political sentiment another 10%. The rest depends on the candidate’s leadership,” he said.
Bilcher agreed, saying Shahelmey would have to emphasise his achievements and contributions while securing the right political platform in order to win.
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