PN voter trust may erode before GE16 over Perlis MB crisis, say experts

PN voter trust may erode before GE16 over Perlis MB crisis, say experts

KUALA LUMPUR: THE controversy surrounding the appointment of a Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia assemblyman as Perlis menteri besar, following the resignation of Pas’ Mohd Shukri Ramli, may have larger implications than merely underscoring the widening cracks between the two parties’ relationship, say analysts.

They believe that the issue could severely erode voters’ confidence in Perikatan Nasional’s ability to govern the country ahead of the 16th General Election.

Kuala Perlis assemblyman Abu Bakar Hamzah was sworn in as menteri besar on Sunday.

This followed the resignation of Shukri, who cited health reasons, and the sacking of three Pas assemblymen that affected the state’s political balance.

International Islamic University Malaysia lecturer Assistant Professor Dr Lau Zhe Wei said the move could damage Bersatu-Pas relations on the ground, even if the PN leadership succeeded in containing the dispute at the top.

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He said by numbers and political logic, the menteri besar position should have remained with Pas.

As such, he said, it would be difficult for Pas supporters to accept a Bersatu menteri besar unless there was clear and urgent justification.

“The original (ratio) is 9-5-1. Even without the three sacked assemblymen, it is still 6-5-1. No matter how you calculate, it should have stayed with Pas.

“This will definitely create huge tensions at the grassroots level.”

Lau questioned Bersatu’s decision to submit a candidate for the menteri besar post, saying the issue was not about statutory declarations but political responsibility.

He said the situation was different from contests involving Pakatan Harapan or Barisan Nasional as this latest dispute was between parties in the same coalition.

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He said while Bersatu’s core supporters might justify the move on grounds of experience or leadership, the greater risk lay in damaging its relationship with Pas, which Bersatu was relying on for election campaigning and grassroots mobilisation.

“We do not know if there are some hidden strategies and if not, based on what we see at the surface level, it is totally unwise.

“Bersatu is creating more traps for itself, in the sense that it is making Pas even more unhappy with it. If the relationship is damaged, even if it is not ruined at the party-to-party level, you are still going to lose a lot of votes at the grassroots level.”

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the Perlis dispute was the most serious rift between Bersatu and Pas to date.

“We have seen disputes before but I think this is the most severe one and will surely affect the relationship between the two.

“Bersatu is trying to show that even though they have fewer seats in Perlis and nationally compared with Pas, they are in the driving seat. They are more savvy in political manoeuvring.”

He said the spat could undermine public confidence in PN.

“It will create doubt among PN supporters on whether the coalition can truly administer the nation or form the federal government.”

University of Tasmania’s Professor James Chin said while Pas would be unhappy with Bersatu’s move, the dispute was unlikely to escalate into a major federal-level crisis.

He said although some leaders were concerned about the situation, it was not expected to significantly alter the already strained relationship.

He said Bersatu had long seen itself as the dominant party in the coalition, often assuming it would put forward the prime minister candidate, and the Perlis episode reflected this mindset.

“It is not a question of whether Bersatu is trying to regain dominance.

“In the case of Perlis, yes, Bersatu is showing that it is capable of pushing through one of its own candidates to be menteri besar. Of course, Pas will be unhappy with this,” he added.